Subjective probability - Basic concept and examples
This article will be about the subjective probability, the main definition and with explained examples.
The subjective probability is based on a believed or a feeling about an event, when there is nothing that supports the occurrence of the outcome but a person is leaned to think that it will happen. This could be because of past experiences or just a thought. The subjective probability is not based on numbers or statistics or anything that has to do with numbers or mathematical processes.
Difference opinions about a future baby
This probability in general does not use fractions or percentages to express the probability of an outcome, this is mainly based on the affirmation or negation that something is going to happen, but there are cases where the person uses percentages to express the probability, but this percentages are not backed by any mathematical process.
The subjective probability is mostly used in casual situation and not that used in formal scenarios, as could be the analysis of an important report or to take a decision about a company, this probability is used normally in the everyday life and not in something that is transcendent.
Between all types of probabilities that are studied in statistic, the subjective probability is the one that is the most connected with human feelings before than with data or events, the subjective probability could be very influenced with the mood or faith of a person.
Subjective probability examples
Example 1: it´ll rain today? A 70 years old man says that it will rain almost for sure, he based his prediction by only observing the nature behavior that day, even though it is not cloudy, this old man is almost 100% sure that it will rain, things like the behavior of the birds flying towards other places or the unusual sound of some amphibians convinces him that today will be a rainy day.
Example 2: is it a boy or a girl? The grandma of a baby that is about to be born is sure that the future baby will be a girl and not a boy, the grandmother is based on the mother´s craving, the shape of the belly and other aspects that she could see throughout the pregnancy to say that her grandchild will be a little girl.
Example 3: Probability of being hired: a believer young man went to a job interview where he and other 30 persons apply for the same job as this young man, at first glance it is very unlikely that this young man gets the job, but the man is very confident and he thinks that the job will be his 99% sure.